The Dolphins ranked 22nd in scoring offense (20.3 points per game) and 10th in scoring defense (21.4 points allowed per game) last year. While the Patriots ranked 22nd in total defense with 342.9 yards allowed per game last season, they were a little worse on offense, ranking second-worst (292 yards per game).
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Why Gennaro picked the Patriots: It's worth noting the Patriots have been horrible during their visits to South Beach this decade. New England has dropped its last five in Miami, losing by an average of 13 points in those games. Yet, I can't overlook what former Giants castoff Daniel Jones and the Colts did to the Dolphins last week, making Mike McDaniel's crew look like it didn't belong on the same field. Obviously, the Pats have their own issues to address, particularly on offense, but if Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels can't put together a plan that allows them to be the aggressors against a team that's clearly on the ropes, the problems in New England are larger than I imagined. Perhaps Tua Tagovailoa bounces back from a dreadful 2025 debut and a talented pass rush shows some life against a vulnerable Pats offensive line. It's a plausible scenario, albeit one that feels unlikely right now. Until I see the Dolphins wake up, I can't pick them to win.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports:
Pick: Dolphins 27, Patriots 19
Both of these teams are coming off bad losses in Week One. The Dolphins looked hapless. But I think that changes here. Tua Tagovailoa will play well at home as the Dolphins get back on track. Mike McDaniel better hope they do.
The Patriots finally overcome their Tua problem and win for the first time in Miami since 2019. I've been leaning toward picking Miami all week, but something tells me the Pats will be focused on getting the first win of the Vrabel era.
